China’s president touched down in Pyongyang this week, and if you needed proof that Beijing hasn’t given up on its neighbor to the east, here it is. Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea was his first in seven years, and the timing tells its own story.
Thousands of people lined the streets. Children held balloons. Military honor guards stood at attention. The spectacle was unmistakably grand, and that was exactly the point. Xi and Kim Jong Un spent the day reinforcing what both sides called an “unbreakable” relationship, one that China is clearly trying to reclaim after watching North Korea drift closer to Russia over the past few years.
This trip comes on the heels of Xi’s back-to-back summits with Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Beijing last month. In the world of geopolitics, that’s not a coincidence. It’s a chess move.
“Xi will try to demonstrate China’s sway over the Korean Peninsula and a leadership role in entire Northeast Asia in the age of strategic competition with the U.S.,” noted Kwak Gil Sup, head of One Korea Center, a website specializing in North Korea affairs. That’s a blunt assessment, but it’s hard to argue with.
The substance of the meetings covered the usual ground: trade, agriculture, construction, and yes, technology. China is North Korea’s economic lifeline, and it’s no secret that Beijing has been less than enthusiastic about enforcing U.N. sanctions. Last year, bilateral trade recovered to pre-pandemic levels, and both countries have resumed direct flights and passenger trains that had been stalled since the pandemic hit.
What Xi likely offered Kim Jong Un is equally predictable: rice, fertilizers, a revival of Chinese group tourism, and joint economic projects. These are the tools Beijing uses to keep its neighbor afloat without drawing too much international scrutiny.
But here’s where it gets interesting. For all the talk of friendship and unity, there’s a complicated reality lurking beneath the surface. North Korea has been deepening its partnership with Russia, sending troops and weapons to support the war in Ukraine. In return, it’s received economic and military assistance from Moscow. That’s a shift that clearly makes Beijing uncomfortable.
“North Korea can’t solely rely on Russia. It needs to align with China,” Kwak said. That’s the pragmatic view from Seoul, and it reflects what many analysts are thinking: China wants to be the primary partner, not the backup.
There was also the nuclear question, which everyone is dancing around. Kim unveiled a new plant to produce nuclear ingredients last week and vowed to boost his nuclear forces at an “exponential rate.” South Korean President Lee Jae Myung told reporters that North Korea is now producing enough material for roughly 10 to 20 bombs annually and is close to perfecting intercontinental ballistic missile technology.
Xi, for his part, seemed content to not press the denuclearization issue publicly. Chinese officials have taken the position of not speaking about denuclearization as a public goal while still treating it as a long-term aspiration. Kim, for his part, appears to want Xi to simply accept North Korea as a nuclear neighbor. That’s a massive concession, and whether Xi is willing to make it remains an open question.
After last month’s Xi-Trump summit, the White House said both leaders confirmed their shared goal of denuclearizing North Korea. But China’s public statement was far more vague, merely saying the leaders discussed the nuclear issue. Kim’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, was even more blunt, dismissed the U.S. push for denuclearization as an “anachronistic dream.”
The bottom line is this: China wants influence, North Korea wants recognition as a nuclear state, and the United States wants diplomacy. These three things don’t exactly align, but that hasn’t stopped anyone from trying.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. But one thing is clear. Xi’s visit wasn’t a nostalgic trip down memory lane. It was a statement that China intends to be a major player in whatever comes next on the Korean Peninsula. The question is whether that presence translates into actual leverage when the talks get serious.
