US fossil fuel infrastructure surges as Trump administration blocks renewables

America’s power grid is at a crossroads. The US is building more fossil fuel infrastructure than it has in a decade, even as electricity demand climbs faster than it has in over ten years. Data centers, factories, and electric vehicles are all plugging into the grid simultaneously, creating an energy crunch that’s reshaping how the nation produces power.

A new report from the Environmental Defense Fund and Atlas Public Policy reveals just how dramatic this shift has become. In 2024, fossil fuels made up just 5 percent of planned new capacity. By the second quarter of 2026, that number skyrocketed to 30 percent. If current trends continue, fossil fuels could represent 70 percent of the development pipeline by 2030.

The Trump Effect on Energy Policy

The transformation isn’t happening by accident. The Trump administration has made fossil fuels its energy priority, with a stated “drill, baby, drill” strategy to power energy-hungry data centers. The administration has actively moved to kill renewable projects through stop work orders, permit blocks, and removal of tax incentives. Meanwhile, new fossil fuel projects breeze through permitting with far fewer obstacles.

What’s particularly striking is that renewables still offer better economics. New solar and wind farms cost $68 to $69 per megawatt-hour compared to $90 per megawatt-hour for new natural gas plants. Solar alone accounted for 81 percent of added electricity capacity in 2024, making it the fastest-growing power source. Yet these cost advantages are being undermined by policy changes.

Renewable energy projects are now being canceled at a rate of 4.9 percent, compared to just 2.9 percent for fossil fuel projects. That’s a telling reversal of momentum.

Data Centers and the AI Energy Boom

The surge in fossil fuel planning is largely driven by projections of massive data center energy demands. Tech companies are racing to build out AI infrastructure, and utilities are scrambling to secure enough power to meet anticipated consumption. Some of this growth may prove excessive if AI energy demand forecasts turn out to be inflated, but for now, the market is betting big on natural gas plants.

Many of the planned fossil fuel projects could still fall through if those forecasts prove too optimistic. But the damage to renewable energy momentum is already done. The wave of solar and wind projects we’re seeing now mostly represents the tail end of Biden-era incentives, not new construction driven by current policy.

The Hidden Costs of the Fossil Fuel Pivot

There’s more to this story than just capacity numbers. Energy policy decisions made today will lock in decades of higher emissions and increased health costs. Gas and coal plants emit greenhouse gases and air pollutants that contribute to respiratory disease, cardiovascular problems, and other public health crises.

Fossil fuels are also increasingly subject to price volatility, particularly after US involvement in regional conflicts. Electricity bills are already rising nationwide as utilities upgrade grids and build new infrastructure. Consumers will bear the cost of this transition for decades.

The irony is stark: renewable energy has become the cheapest power source in most of the world. Solar installations continue at record pace globally. Yet policy choices in the US are pushing the nation toward more expensive, dirtier power sources.

What Happens Next?

The power sector sits at what the report calls “a new inflection point.” If all planned gas projects complete construction, they could cement fossil fuels as the nation’s primary energy source well into the 2050s. But outcomes remain uncertain. If AI energy demand disappoints, many of these plants may never be built. Technology trends in computing efficiency could also reduce the anticipated demand spike.

For now, the visible shift is unmistakable. Planned fossil fuel capacity reached 68 gigawatts by 2030, reflecting a 45 percent jump from just six months earlier. The wind isn’t shifting toward cleaner energy anymore; it’s blowing decidedly in favor of natural gas.

Source: The Verge

The question isn’t whether we can build renewable energy fast enough, but whether we’ll allow policy to stand in its way.