The announcement landed like a bombshell at the G7 summit. President Trump, standing alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, declared that a preliminary deal to end the war with Iran had already been signed. “I am very happy to say it’s signed, the deal is all signed,” he told reporters on Monday.
According to BBC reporting, US officials began briefing that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on Friday, the same day the deal is formally inked in Geneva. Technical talks on Iran’s nuclear programme are expected to begin this week, they said, with any sanctions relief or release of assets contingent on Iran meeting its commitments.
Here’s where it gets interesting. The agreement has apparently been signed electronically by Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. Trump said the full text would be released “pretty soon” after Friday’s ceremony, calling it “a very powerful document.”
The Nuclear Question
Let’s be honest: this is the part everyone actually cares about. Iran has always maintained its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes, while the West has long insisted the country must never acquire a weapon.
According to the BBC, JD Vance told Fox News that Iran never possessing a nuclear weapon was “built into this agreement” and that the US would be able to verify compliance. European leaders, in a joint statement with the UK, France, Germany and Italy, were careful to note that Iran “must never acquire a nuclear weapon” and that they were “prepared to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear, verifiable steps by Iran on its nuclear programme.”
But here’s the tension: Iran’s foreign ministry said Tehran still holds “deep mistrust” of the US and the agreement is “merely a step towards reducing tensions.” That’s not exactly a ringing endorsement from the Iranian side.
The regional mess
The deal, as described, would extend a ceasefire for another 60 days while the sides negotiate a final agreement. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose nation had been mediating, announced the breakthrough on Sunday, saying it included “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
Yet according to BBC international editor Jeremy Bowen, it’s not clear if the deal means Israelis will pause their offensive in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quick to pour cold water on any notion of withdrawal, saying Israeli forces would remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza “as long as necessary,” and retain the freedom to act against attacks.
A deadly Israeli strike on a car in southern Lebanon was reported shortly after the peace deal was announced, the first since the announcement. Hezbollah responded by firing missiles and drones at Israeli forces.
What actually changes?
Trump claimed he ordered the immediate removal of a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and said ships were already moving through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s deputy foreign minister confirmed the end of military operations, with state TV portraying the framework deal as a victory for Iran. That’s quite a narrative gap between Tehran’s triumphalism and Washington’s version of events.
The economic implications could be significant. When the conflict began on 28 February, fuel costs jumped as the war disrupted energy production and transportation across the Middle East. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil passes, would be a massive development for Business markets worldwide.
Looking ahead
Experts have warned that the impact of this war will continue affecting the global economy for months to come, regardless of any deal. And given thedeep mistrust acknowledged by Tehran and the skepticism from European powers, not to mention Israel’s explicit rejection of any full withdrawal, calling this a “done deal” feels premature.
What we have is a framework, a 60-day ceasefire, and a lot of political spin from all sides. The details, when they eventually emerge, will tell us whether this is genuinely historic or just another diplomatic pause in a conflict that’s far from over.
