This reporting comes from AP News.
President Trump is heading into a high-stakes Cabinet meeting Wednesday with a Simple but complicated goal: wrapping up negotiations to end the war with Iran. But if the emerging deal is anything to go by, “done” might not mean what the administration hopes.
Talks have been in a state of flux for weeks, and the president still can’t quite decide whether victory is within reach or whether the whole thing might collapse into something less than satisfying. On Tuesday, Trump took to social media to grumble that even if Tehran offered a complete surrender, the media would spin it as Iran scoring “a Masterful and Brilliant Victory.” The man can never quite let go of the narrative, can he?
The Deal That’s Got Everyone Uneasy
Here’s what we know so far. The emerging agreement would have Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which has long been a key demand from the Trump administration. In return, Tehran gets sanctions relief. That’s the basic swap, according to two regional officials and a senior Trump administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The details, though, are where things get messy. During a 60-day window, Iran would either dilute some of its uranium or ship the rest off to a third country. The International Atomic Energy Agency has documented that Iran holds roughly 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity, which is just a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran hasn’t publicly committed to giving up any of this, and there’s a real question about whether what looks like concession on paper will actually translate to meaningful reduction in capability.
Trump himself seemed to soften his stance Monday, saying the uranium could be “destroyed in place” with international observers rather than seized by the U.S. That marks ashift from his earlier hardline insistence that America take direct control of the stockpile. Whether this represents pragmatic diplomacy or the erosion of a negotiating position depends on who you ask.
The Republican Rebel Alliance
And plenty of Republicans are asking. Senators Roger Wicker, Lindsey Graham, and Ted Cruz have all expressed serious reservations about the terms. They’re balking at what they see as a deal that looks uncomfortably similar to the Obama-era nuclear agreement that Trump himself ripped apart during his first term. That’s not nothing. These aren’t fringe voices. Graham in particular has been a reliable war hawk, and if he’s questioning the terms, the administration has a problem.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to sound optimistic Tuesday, telling reporters the talks would take “several more days” and that Trump would either “make a good deal or no deal.” That’s the diplomatic equivalent of “we’ll see.” There’s clearly daylight between what the U.S. wants and what Iran is willing to give, and neither side seems eager to blink first.
The Lebanon Complication
Beyond the uranium question, there’s another flashpoint: Lebanon. Iran has insisted that any ceasefire agreement must also cover Israel’s operations against Hezbollah, the militant group it backs in Lebanon. The administration’s proposed memorandum tries to thread this needle by calling for a ceasefire against Iran and its proxies while preserving Israel’s right to act against “imminent threats” and in self-defense.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear Tuesday that the Israeli military is “deepening its operation” in Lebanon. That’s not exactly a vote of confidence in the diplomatic track. And former IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus, now with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, put it bluntly: Israel expects Iran will use any sanctions relief money to restore its military capability and boost its proxy groups. “We’re not done fighting, because the Iranian regime isn’t done,” he said.
The Abraham Accords Fantasy
Then there’s the wild card Trump threw onto the table this week. The president has been pushing that any Iran deal should require several additional countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Pakistan, to join the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and Arab states brokered during his first term.
It’s an ambitious vision. The problem is, Saudi Arabia has been crystal clear that establishing a guaranteed path to a Palestinian state is a precondition for any normalization with Israel. Israel opposes that fiercely. So what we’ve got is Trump asking Gulf countries to sign onto deals that require Palestinian statehood, which Israel won’t accept, while simultaneously fighting a war in Lebanon that makes Palestinian statehood even more remote.
Retired U.S. ambassador Barbara Leaf said officials from Gulf countries who were on the call told her Trump’s pitch was met with “stunned silence.” A person familiar with the call disputed that characterization, claiming some regional allies responded positively. But even the optimistic reading suggests this is a hard sell, not a sure thing.
The Political Clock
Let’s not forget the calendar. Midterm elections are coming into focus, and Republicans are nervous. Rising costs and fuel prices are Darkening the American electorate’s mood, and the last thing the party wants is voters惩罚ing them for a war that stretched too long and ended too muddily. Trump needs a win here, something he can point to and call victory.
But the emerging deal puts off many critical issues to be resolved later. It exposes Trump to fierce criticism from his own supporters who see Iran’s hardline leaders emerging from this conflict battered but emboldened. And it leaves unresolved whether the ceasefire will actually hold, whether Iran will cheat, whether Israel will keep fighting in Lebanon, and whether the whole thing collapses into renewed hostilities six months down the line.
Arab allies of the United States, for their part, seem supportive of Trump pursuing an end to the conflict, though perhaps more out of exhaustion than enthusiasm. As one diplomat put it, they see no other way out. The war has been a disaster for everyone except perhaps the most die-hard hawks who never believed in diplomacy anyway.
The question now is whether Trump can actually close this deal, or whether he’ll end up with something that satisfies no one. The Cabinet meeting Wednesday might give us a clearer picture. Then again, with this administration, clarity has a way of remaining elusive.
