So here we go again. After months of tit-for-tat strikes, blocked shipping lanes, and a whole lot of sabre-rattling, the US and Iran might actually be close to a deal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio dropped by Delhi on Monday and told reporters, with what seemed like genuine cautious optimism, that there’s “a pretty solid thing on the table” and that a deal could materialize “maybe today.”
Let’s hold our horses though. Rubio himself immediately followed up with “I wouldn’t read too much into it,” which is politician-speak for “we’re close but things could still fall apart.” Still, the markets didn’t wait. Oil prices tanked almost immediately, while Asian stock markets ticked upward on the simple promise of the Strait of Hormuz potentially reopening. That tell you something? The global economy is absolutely desperate for any sign of de-escalation in the Gulf.
The framework being discussed looks something like this: a 60-day ceasefire extension, the Strait of Hormuz back open for business, and a roadmap for eventually tackling the nuclear question. But here’s where it gets messy. According to reporting from BBC’s US partner CBS News, the US intelligence community believes Iran’s supreme leader is currently holed up in an undisclosed location after being injured in an Israeli strike back in February. Communication with his envoys has apparently been slow going. That explains why things feel so close and yet so far, as Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson put it over the weekend. Both very close and very far. That’s about as diplomatic a way of saying “we’re stuck” as you’ll get.
The really interesting part is watching the Republicans eat each other alive over this. Senator Ted Cruz called any potential deal “a disastrous mistake.” Roger Wicker, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, went off about how a 60-day ceasefire would render “everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” Even Lindsey Graham, usually one of Trump’s closest allies in the Senate, questioned why the war even started if it was all going to end like this. Trump’s response? He called these critics “losers” who know nothing about what they’re criticizing and insisted any deal he makes will be “good and proper.”
The uncomfortable truth is that both sides seem to be looking for an off-ramp here. The US and Israel launched those wide-ranging strikes on Iran back in February, which kicked off this whole mess. Iran responded by lashing out at Israel and US allies in the Gulf and, crucially, closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. That move sent oil prices soaring globally and got everyone’s attention in a hurry.
Since the ceasefire back in early April, the US has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports, which Trump has made clear will stay “in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” Meanwhile, some reports suggest the deal could see Iran agree to eventually hand over its highly enriched uranium. At the start of this conflict, Iran was estimated to have around 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60% purity, which is a frighteningly short walk from the 90% weapons-grade threshold.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian went on state TV recently saying Iran is ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon.” Tehran has said its nuclear programme is purely for peaceful purposes, as it always has. But here’s the thing that keeps everyone up at night: how do you verify that? How do you trust that? These are the questions that don’t seem to be fully answered in this initial framework everyone is talking about.
What we have, essentially, is a pause. A breathing room. The thorniest issues, like the exact scope and timing of sanctions relief and what exactly Iran needs to do about its nuclear programme, are punted to later negotiations. That’s either brilliant diplomacy kicking the can down the road, or it’s a recipe for the same deadlock we’re in now, just with extra steps.
The markets are celebrating for now. The politicians are fighting amongst themselves. And somewhere in an undisclosed location, Iran’s supreme leader is presumably watching all this unfold, trying to figure out his next move.
What a time to be alive.
