The ceasefire between the US and Iran was supposed to ease tensions. Instead, the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally paralyzed, with only a handful of vessels trickling through what should be one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors.
According to reporting from maritime intelligence firm Windward, the situation is far from a return to normal. “Transit conditions, toll arrangements, and the legal framework for passage remain undefined. The strait has not reopened—it is in a supervised pause,” the firm wrote in an April 8 report.
That’s a crucial distinction. A pause isn’t recovery.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Before the crisis, over 100 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily. On the day before the ceasefire was announced, just 11 vessels made the transit. Wednesday barely improved the picture, with only five bulk carriers tracked outbound as of midday.
All of them stayed confined to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-controlled corridor.
The bottleneck isn’t mysterious. Any vessel wanting passage still needs to coordinate directly with Iranian forces. Windward noted that “coordination with Iranian armed forces is still required for all transits,” and while Iran claims this operates within “technical limitations,” the firm suspects something else is going on.
“Iran has confirmed this operates within technical limitations without specifying what those are but all signs are that the Islamic Republic is seeking to retain its leverage over the waterway during ceasefire negotiations,” Windward stated.
In other words, control is leverage. And leverage is leverage.
Who’s Moving, and Who Isn’t
The ships that are transiting aren’t your typical global operators. Smaller, risk-tolerant players are doing the work while the major oil companies and large shipping firms stay put. That’s not caution—that’s absence.
War-risk insurance remains the invisible wall. Without proper coverage, mainstream operators won’t touch the route, no matter how lucrative a cargo might be. Around 3,200 vessels carrying roughly 20,000 seafarers are still bottlenecked west of Hormuz, waiting for conditions that feel safe enough to proceed.
Even in a best-case scenario, Windward estimates it could take weeks to move stranded cargoes and months for global business to return to pre-crisis levels.
The Oil Price Question
Energy analyst Ellen Fraser from consultancy Baringa sums up the frustration bluntly: “My sense is that it’s unlikely ships will move quickly—much as there is a lot of pent-up demand to get these cargoes moving, risks will need to be managed carefully given the lives and costs in play.”
That caution is translating into elevated oil prices. Brent crude was trading around $97 per barrel early Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate futures hovered near $97.53. Both are up roughly 2.5-3% on the day, but more importantly, both remain well above pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel.
The ceasefire announcement sparked a brief sell-off, but the market quickly remembered that “supervised pauses” aren’t the same as resolved crises. Prices climbed back because nobody actually knows when normal service resumes.
What Comes Next?
Here’s the uncomfortable truth: a ceasefire and actual reopening are two different things. Diplomacy moves slowly, insurance companies move even slower, and shipping companies operate on margins that don’t forgive risk.
The question isn’t whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen—it will. The question is whether that happens in weeks, months, or whether we’re looking at a longer standoff disguised as a pause. Until then, global energy markets will keep pricing in the anxiety, and thousands of sailors will keep waiting in the heat off the Persian Gulf wondering when someone will decide it’s safe to move.
