Last week’s Trump-Xi summit in Beijing wrapped with the kind of headlines that sound good on paper: $17 billion in annual agricultural purchases through 2028, rare earth supply chain commitments, 200 Boeing aircraft orders. The White House rolled out the talking points. The media ran with the wins. But dig deeper and you’ll find something more complicated and honestly more revealing about the state of US-China relations right now.
The agricultural numbers tell you something interesting. China’s supposedly agreeing to buy American soybeans again, plus beef and poultry. But here’s the catch: neither the White House readout nor China’s Commerce Ministry actually specified amounts for the new commitments. This matters. Last fall after a different Trump-Xi meeting, the US claimed China agreed to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of American soybeans annually for three years. This time around, the specifics are fuzzy.
On rare earths, the divergence between the two sides’ official statements is even starker. The US specifically highlighted Beijing’s agreement to address shortages of yttrium, scandium, neodymium, and indium. These aren’t obscure chemical names you can ignore. China controls the supply chain for these minerals, which are essential to everything from smartphones to weapons systems. Yet China’s official statement didn’t mention rare earths at all. It mentioned promoting agricultural trade and establishing boards of commerce, but nothing about rare earth commitments.
The Underwhelming Reality Behind the Headlines
Call it what it is: the summit itself was underwhelming. That’s not hyperbole from some cynical observer. Jacob Shapiro, strategic partner and geopolitical advisor at The Bespoke Group, said as much on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia,” describing the bilateral talks as exactly that.
But here’s where it gets interesting. Shapiro argued that US-China relations will likely improve incrementally as long as Trump remains president. The key word there is “incrementally.” And more importantly, he flagged something most cheerleading takes miss: “After you get past Trump, I don’t see that Trump is passing the baton to anyone in the United States who is meaningfully improving ties with China.”
That’s the real subtext. Beijing is playing a longer game than the headlines suggest. According to Shapiro’s analysis, China will “say what they need to say to make things nice for the next couple of years,” while bracing for the next US president who will likely take a harder line.
Trade Tariffs and the Missing Specificity
The differences between what Washington announced and what Beijing announced reveal cracks in the agreement itself. China indicated that reducing tariffs would be part of future plans. The US didn’t mention duties at all in its readout. That’s telling. It suggests the two sides may not be quite as aligned on the actual mechanics of trade as the press releases suggest.
On Business deals, both sides did agree to establish boards of trade and investment to facilitate ongoing discussions. That’s useful infrastructure, but infrastructure isn’t the same as actual progress.
The Boeing airplane purchase is another example of selective framing. The US specified that China plans to buy 200 Boeing aircraft. Beijing’s statement was vaguer, mentioning the aircraft purchase agreement while also noting that the US would ensure supply of engines and other parts. Context matters here: China has developed its own passenger airplane but still relies on foreign-made components. That dependency shapes the entire negotiation.
The Real Question
So what does all this actually mean? The summit produced some concrete commitments, sure. But the divergence between US and Chinese statements, the missing specifics, and the expert skepticism about long-term durability all point to something less triumphant than the headlines suggest. These are agreements negotiated between two superpowers that fundamentally distrust each other, playing for time and positioning advantage as much as for immediate gains.
The real test won’t come from what Trump and Xi agreed to last week. It will come from what happens when Trump leaves office and the political calculus in Washington shifts again.
