The fragile peace between Pakistan and Afghanistan has shattered. Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif didn’t mince words when he declared the country is now in “open war” with its neighbour. “Our patience has now run out,” he said, and honestly, the airstrikes that followed made it clear he wasn’t bluffing.
This explosion of violence didn’t come out of nowhere. The Afghan Taliban launched what they called a “retaliatory operation” late Thursday night, claiming they’d captured 19 Pakistani military posts and killed 55 soldiers. Pakistan, unsurprisingly, shot back within hours, launching bombing raids on Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktika. The two countries were lobbing accusations and explosives across their shared 2,600-kilometer border by Friday morning.
When a Ceasefire Becomes Worthless
Back in October, both nations had agreed to a ceasefire. That agreement now feels like ancient history. The news of these attacks highlights just how fragile that peace was from day one. Neither side trusted the other enough to actually engage in meaningful dialogue. Negotiations aimed at reaching a complete end to hostilities failed spectacularly, with Pakistan and Afghanistan pointing fingers at each other for not taking talks seriously.
The reality is that neither country has been willing to genuinely address the root causes of their conflict. Pakistan has long accused Afghanistan’s Taliban government of harboring anti-Pakistan terrorist groups responsible for suicide bombings across the border. Afghanistan, meanwhile, views Pakistan’s military actions as unprovoked aggression. When you’ve got that level of mutual distrust, a ceasefire is basically just a timeout before the next round begins.
The Numbers Game Nobody Believes
Here’s where things get murky. Pakistan’s military claims it killed over 200 Taliban fighters and hit 22 Afghan military targets. The Taliban’s spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid says only 13 of their fighters died. Pakistan reported at least 12 soldiers killed; the Taliban put that number higher.
Nobody can verify any of these claims. The BBC couldn’t confirm the numbers coming from either side, which tells you something about how disconnected this conflict has become from verifiable reality. During active hostilities, both sides routinely claim massive victories while downplaying their own losses. It’s a propaganda game played with missiles and drones.
What we do know is that civilians are caught in the crossfire. Taliban officials claimed Pakistani rockets hit a refugee camp in Nangarhar, injuring at least nine people. The camp housed Afghan citizens recently expelled from Pakistan. Whether you believe the casualty figures or not, the fact that a refugee camp was even targeted shows how little regard either side has for civilian safety.
Drones Over Mountains
The situation escalated further when the Taliban claimed they launched drone strikes on Pakistani military positions across the border. Pakistan’s Information Minister Atta Tarar said the military successfully intercepted drones targeting Swabi, Nowshera, and Abbottabad, a garrison city that houses Pakistan’s military academy.
This element of the conflict deserves attention. The introduction of drone warfare into what was already a volatile border dispute adds another layer of complexity. Neither country has shown restraint in deploying these weapons, and the potential for further escalation is real.
The Desperate Search for De-escalation
Interestingly, the international community hasn’t remained silent. Iran stepped in, offering to facilitate dialogue between the two countries. Turkey and Saudi Arabia, via their foreign ministers, also expressed their desire to see peace and stability restored. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper urged both nations to take “immediate steps toward de-escalation and avoid further harm to civilians.”
These diplomatic overtures are well-intentioned but likely insufficient. When military leaders are declaring “open war” and military academies are under drone threat, backchanneling through Middle Eastern intermediaries feels like applying a band-aid to a gunshot wound.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif made the stakes crystal clear, vowing that Pakistan has “the full capability to crush any aggressive ambitions” and that there would be “no compromise” in defending their homeland. That’s not the language of someone interested in compromise.
What Comes Next?
The situation on both sides of the border has reportedly calmed since the initial attacks, with residents and officials noting things have settled down. But people across the frontier remain on high alert, which is exactly where you don’t want a population to be when leaders are trading military strikes.
The October ceasefire proved to be nothing more than a pause between conflicts. Without serious commitment from both sides to address underlying grievances and move beyond blame games, this latest round of violence feels less like an isolated incident and more like a preview of what’s coming. When patience runs out and warplanes fill the sky, what happens to the prospects for peace?
