Snow rarely stops the Japanese from doing anything, and Sunday’s election was no exception. People trudged through rare Tokyo snowfall and braved heavy accumulation in northern regions to cast their votes in what might be the most consequential election Japan has seen in years. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called this snap election just months after winning her party’s leadership race, and honestly, some people thought she was nuts.
The Liberal Democratic Party had just lost its majority. Their decades-long coalition with Komeito had fallen apart. Corruption scandals were still fresh in everyone’s minds. The last two LDP leaders couldn’t even finish their terms. And here’s Takaichi, deciding the best time for an election is the middle of winter, something Japan hasn’t done in 36 years.
But here’s the thing about Takaichi. She’s wildly popular. Her approval ratings hover above 70%, which is basically unheard of in modern Japanese politics. Her new coalition with the Japanese Innovation Party is projected to snag up to 300 of the 465 lower house seats. That’s not just a win, that’s a statement.
The Money Problem Everyone’s Worried About
Walk around Tokyo and ask people what they’re thinking about, and it won’t take long before someone mentions money. Ritsuko Ninomiya put it simply: people want their lives to be better and more comfortable, and they’re not used to dealing with inflation. Japan spent decades in deflationary limbo, so when prices actually started climbing, it hit different.
Rumi Hayama’s story is one you’ll hear repeated across the country. She and her husband both have decent jobs, but they can’t afford a bigger place for their growing son. Housing costs have skyrocketed. Daily expenses keep creeping up. The Japan that felt stable and affordable just a few years ago now feels like it’s slipping away.
Takaichi’s response? Spend more. Her populist promises and nationalist rhetoric have energized voters, but business leaders and economists are side-eyeing those pledges hard. Japan already has one of the highest government debt loads among developed nations. Throwing more money at the problem might win votes, but whether it actually fixes anything is another question entirely.
The Immigration Elephant Nobody Wants to Talk About
Japan is aging fast. Labour shortages are real and getting worse. But Takaichi’s conservative stance on immigration basically amounts to “let’s not really deal with that right now.” Critics argue this is short-sighted, especially when you’ve got an economy that desperately needs workers. Young voters like Daniel Hayama seem engaged and willing to show up despite the cold weather, but they’re inheriting a country with some pretty serious demographic challenges.
The irony isn’t lost on anyone. Takaichi promises economic revival while closing the door on one of the most obvious solutions to labour shortages. It’s a gamble that plays well with her nationalist base but makes pragmatists nervous.
China, Trump, and the Diplomatic Tightrope
If domestic policy is complicated, foreign policy is where things get really messy. Takaichi managed to anger Beijing, Japan’s largest trading partner, by suggesting Japan might respond militarily if China attacked Taiwan. That’s not exactly the kind of thing you say casually when your economy depends heavily on trade with your neighbour.
Then there’s the Trump factor. She’s courted him, he’s publicly endorsed her (which is weird for a US president to do), and they both agree Japan should spend more on defence. The US initially threatened 25% tariffs but backed down to 15%, which is still significant. Voter Yuko Sakai summed up what a lot of people are thinking: where’s the money coming from to balance defence spending with actually improving people’s lives?
The weather disrupted turnout as expected. Train lines closed, ferry routes cancelled, flights grounded. Early voting numbers were down 2.5% from the last election. But people still showed up, trudging through snow to make their voices heard.
A More Unified Opposition This Time
Takaichi isn’t facing the same fractured opposition the LDP has steamrolled for decades. Her former coalition partner Komeito teamed up with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan to form the largest opposition bloc. That’s significant. Political science professor Koichi Nakano pointed out something crucial: this isn’t a presidential election, it’s parliamentary, and most LDP candidates are men still tainted by past scandals.
Personal popularity only goes so far when voters are actually choosing from local candidates they don’t trust. The LDP has governed Japan for most of its post-war history largely because there wasn’t a strong alternative, not necessarily because people loved them. Now that the opposition is more organized, things could get interesting.
Ms Hattori mentioned something that probably resonates with voters everywhere right now: the world is changing so much with Trump in office, and peace feels more important than ever. It’s that underlying anxiety about instability, both economic and geopolitical, that really defines this election. Takaichi bet her popularity could overcome the LDP’s baggage and the terrible timing of a winter election, but whether voters will reward that confidence or punish that audacity won’t be clear until the votes are counted.
