When Benjamin Netanyahu learned about the US-Iran ceasefire, he found out the same way everyone else did: from Donald Trump’s social media post. According to NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin, Israel was kept entirely out of the negotiations over a war it had started. That’s a telling detail, and it reveals something crucial about where Israel stands in this moment: the real decider isn’t in Tel Aviv anymore, it’s in Mar-a-Lago.
Israel isn’t thrilled about the ceasefire, but it’s not shocked either. The country understood that Trump wanted to end this war and that once it became clear Iran’s regime wasn’t going to collapse, the entire conflict became a race against time. How much damage could Israel inflict before Trump called a halt? Now that halt has been called, and Netanyahu is scrambling to shape what comes next.
The Uranium Problem That Won’t Go Away
Here’s where things get complicated. Iran still has its enriched uranium stockpile intact, and Israel absolutely hates this. Netanyahu went on television with a stark declaration: “Iran’s enriched uranium will be removed by agreement or by war.” Estrin’s interpretation, however, cuts through the bluster. Israel can’t afford to launch a war against Iran without Trump’s support, and Trump has already made clear he wants this finished. So what’s Netanyahu really doing?
He’s posturing for negotiations he’s not even in the room for. By making bold public statements about red lines, Netanyahu is trying to influence the diplomatic process from the outside, laying down markers that might end up in whatever agreement eventually gets hammered out. Trump, meanwhile, has suggested via Truth Social that the uranium could remain in Iran as “nuclear dust” buried under rubble, with satellite surveillance keeping watch. Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman was quick to point out the absurdity: we’re talking about a thousand pounds of nuclear material here, not actual dust. The question becomes whether thousand-pound quantities matter if they stay underground and monitored.
It’s classic Netanyahu strategy, but it only works if Trump cares enough to listen.
Lebanon: The Deal’s Real Pressure Point
The more immediate threat to the ceasefire is Lebanon. Iran argues that Israel’s bombing campaign there is a violation of the deal. Israel disagrees. This isn’t semantics; it’s the kind of argument that can unravel an entire agreement if both sides dig in.
Germany’s chancellor and other European leaders have publicly urged Israel to stop its assault on Lebanon. And then, remarkably, Netanyahu announced he’s ordering direct negotiations with Lebanon. No ceasefire announcement yet, but the signal is unmistakable: Israel is ramping down. This is extraordinary partly because it shows how fragile this ceasefire really is. One country’s military operations in a neighboring state shouldn’t have the power to torpedo an entire Iran deal, but here we are.
Estrin calls this “fascinating” and suggests it shows how seriously Israel is taking the threat to the larger agreement. The question now is whether these negotiations actually mean anything or if they’re just another public performance while operations continue.
Everyone’s Claiming Victory
Here’s what everyone gets wrong about ceasefires: they’re not supposed to have winners and losers, but every party involved will insist they won anyway. Iran is spinning this as a victory because, well, the regime survived. One Khamenei was replaced by another Khamenei. The military establishment remains intact. Iran weathered assaults from both the most powerful army in the world and Israel’s military capabilities, and it discovered what damage it could do to global shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is claiming success. Trump is claiming success. And technically, they all are. But Iran comes out of this knowing it proved more resilient than Israel and the US expected at the war’s start. That’s not nothing.
The real test isn’t what anyone is saying right now. It’s what happens when Netanyahu pushes back on the uranium terms, when Israel decides Lebanon negotiations are moving too slowly, or when Trump’s attention turns elsewhere. Fragile agreements built on public posturing and red lines laid down through social media have a way of collapsing when someone decides they’re done playing along.
