According to BBC reporting, Iran has announced that the Strait of Hormuz would remain “completely open” to commercial shipping for the duration of the ceasefire in the US-Israel conflict. Oil markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude dropping from above $98 to $88 per barrel. Global stock indices surged, and President Trump posted triumphantly on Truth Social about Iran’s commitment.
There’s just one problem: the people who actually have to navigate these waters aren’t convinced it’s safe yet.
The Gap Between Promises and Reality
When Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made the announcement, it sounded decisive. Global markets rallied hard. The S&P 500 climbed 1.2%, while European indices posted gains around 2%. For a moment, it felt like the nightmare of the past six weeks might finally be ending.
But the international maritime bodies tasked with verifying such claims aren’t moving quite so fast. The International Maritime Organization’s secretary general, Arsenio Dominguez, said they’re “currently verifying” Iran’s commitment. That’s diplomatic language for “we need to see proof.”
More tellingly, BIMCO, the shipping industry’s safety body, advised operators to keep avoiding the area. Jakob Larsen, BIMCO’s chief safety and security officer, pointed to a specific problem: the status of mine threats in the traffic separation scheme remains unclear. The organization doesn’t consider the route safe for transit yet.
Caution Over Confidence
An unnamed oil and gas shipping operator told the BBC bluntly: “We don’t feel like we need to be taking unnecessary risks.” The company said they wouldn’t be among the first to venture through the Strait. Stena Bulk, which operates tankers in the region, echoed the sentiment: “The safety of our crew and vessels governs every routing decision, and we will not transit until we are satisfied it is safe to do so.”
This isn’t paranoia. The Strait has been effectively closed since late February when US and Israel military strikes began. Tanker traffic has slowed to a trickle. Before the conflict, Brent crude traded below $70 per barrel. It spiked above $100, then peaked at more than $119 in March. That volatility reflects real disruption to a critical chokepoint: roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas normally passes through this narrow waterway.
The Nine-Day Window
Here’s where things get thorny. The ceasefire is temporary. According to Kieran Tompkins, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, it only lasts nine days. That’s a narrow window for trapped tankers to escape, but it’s not enough time to reset supply chains or restore pre-war shipping volumes.
“That suggests that the number of vessels entering the Strait may not return to pre-war norms yet,” Tompkins said, “but it does offer an opportunity for trapped tankers to leave.”
The impact on everyday life has been real. Sharp oil price increases have pushed up petrol and diesel costs for drivers. Fertilizer supplies have been hit especially hard, with a third of the world’s key fertiliser chemicals passing through the Strait. Fishermen in the region report diesel costs have doubled in six weeks. Food prices face upward pressure as a result.
Trump’s Broader Strategy
Trump welcomed Iran’s announcement, but his follow-up posts revealed a harder negotiating position. He claimed Iran had agreed to “never close the Strait of Hormuz again” and that it “will no longer be used as a weapon against the world.” In a second post, though, he added that a naval blockade of Iran remains “in full force and effect” until a permanent deal is reached.
That’s a significant qualification. It means even as Iran opens this maritime corridor, US military pressure continues. Trump is using the temporary ceasefire as leverage for a longer-term agreement, not as an olive branch.
The Lingering Questions
Professor ManMohan Sodhi of the Bayes Business School offered a sobering reminder: even if a permanent peace deal materializes, recovery won’t be instant. “Supply chains will take months to clear,” he said.
So where does this leave us? Oil prices have stabilized somewhat, and markets have celebrated the announcement. But the actual people responsible for moving ships through these waters remain unconvinced about safety. Iran’s promise is noted. Verification is underway. And Trump is keeping military pressure on. In nine days, we’ll find out whether this temporary opening was genuine de-escalation or just another move in a much longer game.
